报 告 人：美国亚利桑那州立大学 Rong Pan副教授
邀 请 人：综合技术与控制工程系 喻天翔 副教授
时 间：2019年11月04日（星期一）下午14:30-16:30
地 点：友谊校区航空楼A706
题 目：System Reliability Prediction via Nonparametric Bayesian Network
摘 要：
It is important to predict a system’s reliability at its early design stages because modifying the design to improve reliability and maintainability at a later time in the system’s lifecycle will be costly and, oftentimes, impossible. However, early prediction is a difficult task due to the lack of reliability data and the incomplete knowledge of a complex system’s reliability structure. In this talk, I will first introduce the Bayesian Network (BN) approach to modeling system reliability as an extension of the conventional system reliability graph tools, such as reliability block diagrams or fault trees. The challenges in system graph modeling, including how to construct a causal graph and how to estimate the parameters on the causal graph, will then be discussed. To tackle these challenges, my talk will focus on a Non-Parametric Bayesian Network (NPBN) approach, which is essentially a multivariate distribution constructed with the facilitation of copula functions. Employing NPBN, the limitation of discrete BN can be overcome. NPBN can be applied as a useful decision support tool in a system’s early design stage. The proposed methodology will be applied on a case study to demonstrate its prognostic and diagnostic capabilities.
报告人简介：
Rong Pan is an Associate Professor of Industrial Engineering in the School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering at Arizona State University. He received his Ph.D. degree in Industrial Engineering from Penn State University in 2002. His research interests include failure time data analysis, system reliability, design of experiments, multivariate statistical process control, time series analysis, and computational Bayesian methods. His research has been supported by NSF, DOE, Arizona Science Foundation, Air Force Research Lab, etc. He published over 70 journal papers and 40+ refereed conference papers, and several of them were selected for the best paper awards. Dr. Pan is a senior member of ASQ, IIE, IEEE and a lifetime member of SRE. He is an Associate Editor of IEEE Transactions on Reliability and also serves on the editorial boards of Journal of Quality Technology and Quality Engineering.
